Election disaster for the traffic light coalition is a ray of hope for Germany
The state elections in Thuringia and Saxony have brought the traffic light coalition a crushing defeat and changed the political situation in the Federal Republic. Whether this change is a positive one will depend very much on the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance.
By Konstantin Schink
By Konstantin Schink
The German population is currently paying the price for the completely failed economic war against Russia as well as for austerity policies and interest rate increases, which are further exacerbating the crisis. New housing applications have fallen by a third since the traffic light coalition took office, production in the energy-intensive industry has fallen by 15%, real wages have fallen by 4% and are back to the level of 2015, when the minimum wage was just introduced. Production in the manufacturing sector has fallen by around 10% since 2018. A trend that is likely to continue, as incoming orders have fallen by around 20% in the last three years.
When the first forecasts for the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, obtained from post-election surveys, arrived at 6 p.m. on September 1st, they brought great success for the CDU, AfD and BSW and the expected disaster for the traffic light parties. In Saxony, the SPD, Greens and FDP together received around 13% and in Thuringia around 10%, which reflects a very clear distrust of the federal government's policies. The SED's approval ratings in autumn 1989 may have been higher. The parties of the German government coalition thus received the well-deserved receipt for their catastrophic policies.
The same applies to the Left Party, which has increasingly fawned over the government in recent years. Bodo Ramelow was also punished in the peace-loving East for calling for the reactivation of conscription and even more arms deliveries to Ukraine. The unrealistic and anti-worker migration policy did indeed give the Left more green-woke voters in student districts such as Connewitz in Leipzig, where the party even entered the Saxon state parliament by winning two direct mandates, but it also scared away the majority of the traditional electorate, who flocked to the BSW and the AfD.
The AfD was once again able to benefit particularly clearly from the protest against the traffic light coalition. In Thuringia, it even managed to become the strongest force with 33% and achieve a blocking minority in the state parliament. Paradoxically, the CDU was the one who made the greatest profit from this AfD boom, as its misguided migration policy and its actions in the euro crisis made the rise of the former possible in the first place. In Thuringia, 55% and in Saxony 52% of CDU voters said they only voted for the CDU so that the AfD would not gain too much influence. The CDU is therefore not so strong because it has a convincing counter-program to the unpopular traffic light coalition, but simply because it is not the AfD.
The biggest election winner, however, is the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, founded less than a year ago, which entered both state parliaments as the third strongest force. The BSW managed to convince a particularly large number of protest voters with a clear positioning for a left-wing economic policy, a restrictive migration policy, as well as the rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine and Israel and the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany. 52% of BSW voters in Thuringia and 44% of BSW voters in Saxony said they voted for the BSW primarily out of disappointment with other parties, the highest proportion of all parties.
They are the classic protest voters who previously voted for the PDS or the Left Party, are now disappointed with them and do not want to vote for the AfD primarily because of their neoliberal economic policy. They have high expectations of the BSW that it will bring about a fundamental change in German politics, which were fed by Sahra Wagenknecht when she made the end of warmongering against Russia a condition for a possible coalition. This ingenious move by Wagenknecht positioned the BSW as the clearest alternative to the traffic light coalition, which is hated in the East in particular, but also brought the BSW an unprecedented smear campaign from the transatlantic mainstream media.
There is really nothing in the behavior of the SPD or CDU that suggests that they would be prepared to make any substantial concessions to the BSW. Kretschmer and Merz joined in the media smear campaign against the BSW and denounced it as communist, left-wing extremist and right-wing extremist. Kretschmer's poisoned offer of negotiations, which he made to the BSW shortly after the election, does not bode well either. He said of the BSW's central demand to prevent the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany: "Since we in Europe and as Germans cannot do this alone,n, we need the Americans for that. There is absolutely no way around stationing missiles and a defense shield."
The situation is similarly disastrous on other issues. With the CDU, there will be no reform or suspension of the debt brake, which prevents any major investments in education, the health system and public infrastructure at the state level, as well as an active industrial policy, which would be necessary in East Germany in particular to catch up with the West. There will never be enough money for all of this at the state level through savings elsewhere or bureaucracy reduction, as it would take many tens of billions of euros to implement an effective economic policy that actually improves people's lives.
Nor will there be any institutional reforms with the CDU. The CDU is largely responsible for the composition of the broadcasting councils and thus for the increasingly aggressive treatment of minorities in the public broadcasting system, be it against the unvaccinated, against the peace movement or against people who simply say that there are two genders. The CDU is also responsible for the snooping on the opinions of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which is also increasingly targeting the peace movement. There will also be no Corona investigation with it, which was responsible for Corona policy in many federal states such as Saxony and at the federal level until autumn 2021.
The BSW would therefore not be able to implement its policies in any area in a coalition. Only the CDU would benefit by having formed another coalition partner into a dead coalition, as it has already done with the FDP and SPD at the federal level. The Christian Democrats have perfected the power technique "If you can't defeat an opponent, you have to hug him." The BSW would probably suffocate in an embrace with them, which is why one can only hope that it will drive the CDU in the opposition ahead of it and expose it as the false alternative to the traffic light coalition that it is.
With this election, East Germans have cast a clear vote for a more social economic policy, a more restrictive migration policy, for neutrality, sovereignty, peace and diplomacy. The metapolitical situation in the East is much better than in the West. It is now up to the BSW to use this and to make a clear voice for all these things and to push the neoliberal, transatlantic, established parties ahead of it. It must under no circumstances disappoint its electorate for any small, insignificant concessions, as the Left Party once did. Whether these elections are a ray of hope for the country depends on whether the BSW stands firm.
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04.09.24
Konstantin Schink (born November 8, 2001) graduated from high school in Lower Saxony in 2021. He is currently studying economics and politics in the 2-subject bachelor's program and runs the YouTube channels "Agitator of the Social Market Economy" and "Secondary Agitation."
When the first forecasts for the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony, obtained from post-election surveys, arrived at 6 p.m. on September 1st, they brought great success for the CDU, AfD and BSW and the expected disaster for the traffic light parties. In Saxony, the SPD, Greens and FDP together received around 13% and in Thuringia around 10%, which reflects a very clear distrust of the federal government's policies. The SED's approval ratings in autumn 1989 may have been higher. The parties of the German government coalition thus received the well-deserved receipt for their catastrophic policies.
The same applies to the Left Party, which has increasingly fawned over the government in recent years. Bodo Ramelow was also punished in the peace-loving East for calling for the reactivation of conscription and even more arms deliveries to Ukraine. The unrealistic and anti-worker migration policy did indeed give the Left more green-woke voters in student districts such as Connewitz in Leipzig, where the party even entered the Saxon state parliament by winning two direct mandates, but it also scared away the majority of the traditional electorate, who flocked to the BSW and the AfD.
The AfD was once again able to benefit particularly clearly from the protest against the traffic light coalition. In Thuringia, it even managed to become the strongest force with 33% and achieve a blocking minority in the state parliament. Paradoxically, the CDU was the one who made the greatest profit from this AfD boom, as its misguided migration policy and its actions in the euro crisis made the rise of the former possible in the first place. In Thuringia, 55% and in Saxony 52% of CDU voters said they only voted for the CDU so that the AfD would not gain too much influence. The CDU is therefore not so strong because it has a convincing counter-program to the unpopular traffic light coalition, but simply because it is not the AfD.
The biggest election winner, however, is the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, founded less than a year ago, which entered both state parliaments as the third strongest force. The BSW managed to convince a particularly large number of protest voters with a clear positioning for a left-wing economic policy, a restrictive migration policy, as well as the rejection of arms deliveries to Ukraine and Israel and the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany. 52% of BSW voters in Thuringia and 44% of BSW voters in Saxony said they voted for the BSW primarily out of disappointment with other parties, the highest proportion of all parties.
They are the classic protest voters who previously voted for the PDS or the Left Party, are now disappointed with them and do not want to vote for the AfD primarily because of their neoliberal economic policy. They have high expectations of the BSW that it will bring about a fundamental change in German politics, which were fed by Sahra Wagenknecht when she made the end of warmongering against Russia a condition for a possible coalition. This ingenious move by Wagenknecht positioned the BSW as the clearest alternative to the traffic light coalition, which is hated in the East in particular, but also brought the BSW an unprecedented smear campaign from the transatlantic mainstream media.
There is really nothing in the behavior of the SPD or CDU that suggests that they would be prepared to make any substantial concessions to the BSW. Kretschmer and Merz joined in the media smear campaign against the BSW and denounced it as communist, left-wing extremist and right-wing extremist. Kretschmer's poisoned offer of negotiations, which he made to the BSW shortly after the election, does not bode well either. He said of the BSW's central demand to prevent the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany: "Since we in Europe and as Germans cannot do this alone,n, we need the Americans for that. There is absolutely no way around stationing missiles and a defense shield."
The situation is similarly disastrous on other issues. With the CDU, there will be no reform or suspension of the debt brake, which prevents any major investments in education, the health system and public infrastructure at the state level, as well as an active industrial policy, which would be necessary in East Germany in particular to catch up with the West. There will never be enough money for all of this at the state level through savings elsewhere or bureaucracy reduction, as it would take many tens of billions of euros to implement an effective economic policy that actually improves people's lives.
Nor will there be any institutional reforms with the CDU. The CDU is largely responsible for the composition of the broadcasting councils and thus for the increasingly aggressive treatment of minorities in the public broadcasting system, be it against the unvaccinated, against the peace movement or against people who simply say that there are two genders. The CDU is also responsible for the snooping on the opinions of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which is also increasingly targeting the peace movement. There will also be no Corona investigation with it, which was responsible for Corona policy in many federal states such as Saxony and at the federal level until autumn 2021.
The BSW would therefore not be able to implement its policies in any area in a coalition. Only the CDU would benefit by having formed another coalition partner into a dead coalition, as it has already done with the FDP and SPD at the federal level. The Christian Democrats have perfected the power technique "If you can't defeat an opponent, you have to hug him." The BSW would probably suffocate in an embrace with them, which is why one can only hope that it will drive the CDU in the opposition ahead of it and expose it as the false alternative to the traffic light coalition that it is.
With this election, East Germans have cast a clear vote for a more social economic policy, a more restrictive migration policy, for neutrality, sovereignty, peace and diplomacy. The metapolitical situation in the East is much better than in the West. It is now up to the BSW to use this and to make a clear voice for all these things and to push the neoliberal, transatlantic, established parties ahead of it. It must under no circumstances disappoint its electorate for any small, insignificant concessions, as the Left Party once did. Whether these elections are a ray of hope for the country depends on whether the BSW stands firm.
Quellen
Quelle 1
Quelle 2
Quelle 3
Quelle 4
Quelle 5
04.09.24
Konstantin Schink (born November 8, 2001) graduated from high school in Lower Saxony in 2021. He is currently studying economics and politics in the 2-subject bachelor's program and runs the YouTube channels "Agitator of the Social Market Economy" and "Secondary Agitation."
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